Giannis Antetokounmpo will decide his future based on the Bucks' start to the season, ESPN's Shams Charania reported on Tuesday.

Antetokounmpo, 30, is one of Greek basketball's most influential forwards. He was selected by the Milwaukee Bucks with the 15th overall pick in the 2013 draft. He has appeared in 859 regular-season games with the Bucks, averaging 23.9 points, 9.9 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. He has been selected to the All-Star team nine times, the All-NBA team seven times, and has twice won the regular-season MVP award (2019, 2020).

In the playoffs, Antetokounmpo played 84 games, averaging 27.0 points, 12.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. He also became the core player of the Bucks' 2021 NBA championship with his Finals MVP-level performance.

Various signs indicate that the Bucks' lack of championship potential is a major factor in Antetokounmpo's decision to stay or leave the team. With the Bucks' three consecutive first-round playoff exits, Antetokounmpo became just the second player in NBA history to average 30 points per game in the regular season but go three consecutive years without a playoff win. Faced with this setback, Antetokounmpo privately expressed doubts about the Bucks' championship potential after the 2024-25 season and expressed his desire to explore potential departure options.

In an effort to retain Antetokounmpo, Bucks general manager Jon Horst traveled to Athens, Greece, in late July to meet with Antetokounmpo and his agent. Shams described the meeting as "a most groundbreaking and candid one," during which the two sides discussed the Bucks' frustrations with three consecutive first-round exits, as well as their plans and goals for the upcoming season.

After the meeting, the Bucks briefly engaged with Antetokounmpo's preferred next team, the New York Knicks. The two sides ultimately failed to reach an agreement due to significant differences in offer price and willingness to negotiate, but Antetokounmpo himself refrained from publicly pressuring the Bucks.

For Antetokounmpo, his biggest moment of influence will come next summer, when he has only one guaranteed year left on his contract. Starting October 1, 2026, Antetokounmpo will be eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million maximum contract extension (through the 2030-31 season). If he decides to seek a trade, his decision to sign the extension could influence the bid and selection of potential new clubs, giving him greater leverage.

Antetokounmpo can also choose to opt out and become a free agent in the summer of 2027. In 2023, he reached a three-year, $175 million early contract extension with the Bucks, with the 2027/28 season being a player option.